Wednesday, October 8, 2014

2014-2015 New York Rangers Season Preview


There are some pretty damn raunchy, scraggly, dirty, beautifully long beards in this picture. In fact, Madison Square Garden hadn't had the privilege of hosting such grizzly looking characters in some 20 years before this spring/early summer.

What a run it was. An unlikely, emotional, underdog journey that was literally inches/posts away from the ultimate goal. It was a ride that produced countless highlights and memories for Blueshirt fans old and new. Alas, I have not returned to recount the season that was, but rather to look ahead to a new season- one ripe with optimism and the true belief that the New York Rangers are among the NHL's elite, ready to make another run at Lord Stanley's Cup.


Your 2014-2015 New York Rangers

ADDITIONS: LW Anthony Duclair, LW Tanner Glass, C Kevin Hayes, LW Ryan Malone, RW Lee Stempniak, D Dan Boyle, D Matt Hunwick

SUBTRACTIONS: C Brian Boyle, RW Daniel Carcillo,  RW Derek Dorsett, LW Benoit Pouliot, C Brad Richards, D Raphael Diaz, D Justin Falk, D Anton Stralman

Thoughts: Can somebody please explain to me why people are panicking about this roster turnover? 

-Boyle is a solid playoff performer and an ideal 4th liner- a role he believes he is too good for.  Sure he's a team guy, but the fact is that he's replaceable on the ice. 
-Glass is (arguably) an upgrade from Dorsett, and we're talking 4th liners.  
-Pouliot was a journeyman who, after being benched and nearly cut early last season, found his niche and some chemistry with Brassard and Zuccarello. Took the money and ran after a 15 goal season. He will be a huge bust in Edmonton. Anybody can play wing with #16 and #36 and put up numbers.
-Richards was a leader in the locker room, but lost a step  all of his steps and dynamic playmaking ability. He played hard in the playoffs and came up with some timely plays, but his contract was an albatross which left Sather & Co no room for discussion. He will be a nice 2nd line $2mil pickup for Chicago this year.
-I like Anton Stralman. He was beyond solid while paired up with Staal in the playoffs at both even strength and on the PK.. but he's ANTON STRALMAN.  He was the #4 defenseman on this team. Dan Boyle will provide enough D, plus the offensive flare to spark the PP and make you forget all about that guy we picked up on the waiver wire a few years ago.  Not the end of the world, and certainly not a deal breaker for this roster.

Now tell me, is this really the crippling depth that was lost and will result in the Rangers taking a huge step back?

FORWARDS
Lines (when healthy)

Nash-Stepan-St Louis
Zuccarello-Brassard-Kreider
Duclair-Miller-Hagelin
Glass/Fast-Moore-Stempniak

Extras- Kevin Hayes, Ryan Malone, Ryan Haggerty


Note: The links in my analysis are clickable. Clicking them will take you places. 

#16 Derek Brassard
13/14 stats: (18 G, 27A)= 45 points
Projected 14-15 stats: (18 G, 32 A ) =  52 points

Brassard, the 6th overall pick in 2006, has never been able to put all his tools together and become the top-line center he was projected to be. Instead, Brass is what he is- a streaky #2-3 middle man with great vision and solid PP production. He can also Shoot the puck. He clicked perfectly with Zuccarello midway through last season, and the pair are sure to skate together on the "Second" line.  Brass' playoff numbers with NYR are very good (24 P in 35GP), and he will be counted on to provide more offense this season, especially early with Stepan on the LTIR. Look for him to cross the 50 point plateau for the first time this campeign.

#63 Anthony Duclair
13/14 stats: (QMJHL)- 59 GP (50 G, 49 A) = 99 points
Projected 14/15 stats: (10 G  10 A) =  20 points

While nobody arrives at training camp ready to get cut, expectations for the flashy, high scoring forward to make the big club were not very high. While NYR brass hoped to see some flashes of his potential, it was expected that Duclair would skate with the club the first week before being sent back to the Quebec Ramparts of the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League. Had this happened, nobody would have batted an eye, nor would anybody have been particularly disappointed in the youngster. Instead, The Duke (yup, that's happening) scored 3 goals in his first 3 games, displaying a knack for being in the right spot, a pro shot, top-notch wheels, slick mittens, and some tenacity on the back check. He is still very, very raw, and expectations need to be cooled a bit after his hot pre-season showing. The 19 year old is still eligible to be sent back to juniors if he is overwhelmed by NHL competition.

#19 Jesper Fast
13/14 stats: 11 GP (0 G 0 A) = 0 points
Projected 14/15 stats:  (5 G,  4A) = 9 points

"Quickie", as Alain Vigneault refers to him, made the team out of camp last year due to injuries to Ryan Callahan and Carl Hagelin, and played 11 games out of the gate. He looked timid and overmatched, but after spending the majority of the year in Hartford (getting used to North American rinks), Fast got another cup of coffee during the Rangers' playoff run.  This year, the young Swede looks stronger and more aggressive with his play, impressing AV enough that the coach claims to have complete confidence in the kid at both ends of the ice. Look for Jesper to be a smart 2-way presence on the ice during his first season in NY.  The offense will develop in time.

#15 Tanner Glass
13/14 stats: (4 G, 9 A) = 13 points
Projected 14/15 stats:  ( 4G, 6A) = 10 points

Glen Sather's signing of Tanner Glass was much maligned before the ink was dry on July 1st due in large part to Glass' poor advanced statistics (league worst puck-possession numbers), and the $1.3mil price tag. While I can't argue with complaints about the terms of the deal, Glass has been a pleasant surprise in Blue this preseason. He skates pretty well, plays the body, kills penalties, and swings his knuckles better than Dorsett did.  If he can keep that up I have no problem with him on the 4th line -especially against NJD and Philly. 

#62 Carl Hagelin
13/14 stats: (17 G, 16 A) = 33 points
Projected 14/15 stats: (15 G, 20 A) =  35 points

Shaggy Haggy has some cool jets and just about the crispest lettuce you'll find under a bucket in the National Hockey League.  Hags has solidified himself as a threat on the PK, and he uses that blazing speed to keep defenses wary in all 3 zones. A top notch puck retriever, Carl will start the season with Zuccarello and Brassard, though I'm not convinced that's the spot he'll stick in. He gets some unfair flack for not having the best hands, but he more than makes up for it with his effort and his hockey sense. An ideal 3rd line forward on a winning squad.

#13 Kevin Hayes
13/14 stats: (H-East) 40 GP (27 G, 38 A) =65 points
Projected 14/15 stats: (2 G,  3 A) = 5 points

One of cawlidge hawkey's premier point producers while playing on a line with Calder hopeful Johnny Gaudreau at BC, Hayes chose to come to the Rangers this offseason after being unable to reach an agreement with the Blackhawks. A former 1st round pick, the 6'3 forward made the team due in large part to the roster's holes down the middle with Stepan out of the lineup. While I thought his foot speed was a concern during the pre-season, Hayes is patient and strong on the puck, and has above-average distributing skills.  A former teammate of Chris Kreider, Hayes may spend more time in Hartford this season, but getting his feet wet certainly won't hurt.

#20 Chris Kreider
13/14 stats: (17 G 20 A) = 37 points
Projected 14/15 stats: (25 G,  24A) =  49 points

Breakaway Pipehitter/Destructor of Goaltenders, Kreider is a game-breaker.  He has the speed, strength, shot, and skill to put up big-time numbers and be a star in this league.. whether or not he can put it all together on a consistent basis very much remains to be seen.  Not afraid to go hard on the forecheck or into the crease (clearly), CK will start the season with Nash and MSL, at least until Stepan returns. I feel Kreids' game may blossom best playing along side Brassard and Zuccarello with his feet moving and his stick on the ice. If everything clicks for the 23 year old, he could be in for a breakout year.

#24 Ryan Malone
13/14 stats: 57GP (5 G, 10 A)= 15 points
Projected 14/15 stats: (4 G, 4 A) =  8 points

Malone was singed to a 2-way, low risk/high reward deal this offseason after some off the ice (on the snowtroubles threatened to derail the big-man's playing days. At 6'4 220, Malone is an imposing force down low and, particularly, in front of the net on the power play.  Slated as an extra forward right now, Malone may get his shot if the NYR PP starts the year slowly. Though unable to stay healthy through training camp, Ryan could play dividends against some bigger teams on the schedule.

#10 JT Miller
13/14 stats: 30GP (3 G, 3 A) = 6 points
Projected 14/15 stats: (10 G,  15A) =  25 points

Last year: Doesn't show up for informal skates before training camp, in and out of lineup, AV decrees JT will be either a very good pro or a very good minor leaguer
This year: Shows up early for informal skates before training camp, slotted into 3rd line center spot, skates well and shows maturity in play in preseason.
Given the Rangers lack of depth down the middle this season, JT is being counted on for some rapid growth both on and off the ice.  There's no question that the kid has the attributes to be a solid contributor, but is he ready, willing and able to take the next step? Early indications are positive.

#28 Dominic Moore
13/14 stats: (6 G. 12 A) = 18 points
Projected 14/15 stats: (7 G, 11 A) = 18 points

What a year it was for Dominic Moore. After a year away from hockey following the death of his wife, Moore had a rough start to last season, nearly being sent down in the early goings. Yet again Moore persevered and wound up playing a pivotal role for the Blueshirts down the stretch and throughout their run to the final. When called upon to play a top-6 role, he notched assists. When asked to kill penalties and check opposing forwards, he would grind it out. And when his team only needed one shot to win the Eastern Conference, he provided. Great story? FUHGEDDABOOTIT 

#61 Rick Nash
13/14 stats: 65GP (26 G, 13 A) = 39 points
Projected 14/15 stats: (33 G, 27 A) = 60 points

Rick Nash gets a lot of shit for his play as a Ranger thus far.  He was acquired (at a hefty price tag) to provide New York with the consistent scoring threat they were missing at (despite having Marian Gaborik).  4 goals in 37 preseason games, (despite heavy shot totals that imply some poor puck-luck) it just... not OK.  Other than a 10 goals in 10 games span in December-January, #61 never found his groove after an early season concussion caused him to miss 17 games (though he still led the team with 26 markers). For the most part, the hulking forward found himself on the periphery in the offensive zone, which is far from his strength in this game. This lack of nose-for-the-net led to AV limiting Nash's PP time, which I think is a mistake. Look for Nash, who arrived at camp healthy, slimmed down, and under the radar for some reason, to have a bounce back season playing alongside a now-comfortable Martin St Louis. Nash is only 30 and still has some big time skill left to play with. Since 2012, no player has more even strength goals/60 minutes than Rick Nash. 

#26 Martin St. Louis (A)
13/14 stats: (30 G 39 A) = 69 points
Projected 14/15 stats: (23 G, 38 A) =  61 points

The ups, downs, and emotions of Marty's playoff run this spring made a lot of people forget about the unexpectedly dismal start to his Blueshirt career. MSL notched lit the lamp only once and notched only 8 points in 15 regular season games down the stretch. He followed that up with an 8 goal, 15 point postseason performance that included some storybook moments, and incredible game winners. Given one of four A's by Vignault, look for St. Louis to be much more comfortable from the get-go this season. At 39 age is obviously a concern, but he is one season removed from the Art Ross trophy, and remains one of the best playmakers in the game.  If he and Nash can find the right chemistry they could prove to be one of the league's most dynamic duos. 

#12 Lee Stempniak
13/14 stats: (12 G. 22 A) =  34 points
Projected 14/15 stats: (9 G, 16 A) =  25 points

When Pittsburgh acquired Stemp at the trade deadline last season, they thought they were getting a smart player with unrealized offensive potential who would thrive playing alongside Crosby or Malkin. Instead, they got 6 goals in 34 total matches.. which is hard to pull off while playing with those two superstars.  On Broadway, Lee will be asked to play a smart, safe game on both sides of the puck, while logging a grinder's minutes for a coach who likes to roll 4 lines.  If he can find the touch that saw him score 14-19 goals a season for most of his career, he'll provide excellent depth and prove to be a steal at $900K.

#21 Derek Stepan (A)
13/14 stats: (17 G. 40 A) =  57 points
Projected 14/15 stats: (15g G, 42 A) =  57 points (starting season on LTIR)

When people talk about the depth that the Rangers supposedly lost, they don't take into account the fact that other Blueshirts are another year older, wiser, and entering the prime of their careers. Exhibit A: Derek Stepan. Though this will be Step's 5th year in the league, he still only just turned 24 in June.   He is undoubtedly the team's top center, and will likely continue to increase his point production for the next few years. I liken Derek's career trajectory to that of Marc Savard, and that is a high compliment. He will start the year on the Long Term Injured Reserve due to a broken leg, which means he will miss at least the first 10 games on the schedule. Expect some rust when he returns, but having #21 in the lineup will be an enormous boost to the team's depth and on-ice performance.

#36 Mats Zuccarello
13/14 stats: (19 G. 40 A) =  59 points
Projected 14/15 stats: (18 G,  38A) =  56 points

Before Mats Zuccarello came to play at the World's Most Famous Arena, he was the league MVP of the 3rd best league in the world. When he arrived in New York, he was seen as a novelty-type item. A  small, offensively gifted player who wouldn't be able to handle the rigorous grind of NHL play... especially in John Tortorella's defensive minded system. Used sparingly by Torts, Frodo has been unleashed to use his wizardry (see what I did there?) with AV calling the shots- even leading the team in points last season. Another player just entering his prime, the 5'7 Norwegian plays a fearless game, often getting chippy with cave trolls (CHARA) who tower over him. Zuuuuc is an offensive weapon that provides the Rangers' depth lines with true firepower. 

CALL UPS: Ryan Haggerty, Chris Mueller


DEFENSE
Pairings

Mcdonagh - Girardi
Staal - Boyle
Klein - Moore

Extras: Matt Hunwick, Connor Allen, Dylan McIlrath

#22 Dan Boyle
13/14 stats: (12 G. 24 A) =  36 points
Projected 14/15 stats: (10 G, 29 A) = 39 points

Make no mistake, at 38 Dan Boyle is no spring chicken. Many of the Blueshirt Faithful were far from pleased when Glen Sather decided to let the younger, increasingly steady Anton Stralman walk in favor of the gray-bearded former Lightning and Shark. But Boyle plugs a major hole for a that came 3 wins away from having their names chiseled into silver. The NYR PP was notoriously inconsistent last year despite finishing 10th overall in efficiency, and a few timely goals with the man advantage may have tilted the scales toward Broadway.  Though a step slower with age, Boyle is still an elite puck-moving defenseman who makes a great first pass out of his own zone, and is a a whiz quarterbacking from the blue line. Playing with Marc Staal will cover up any of #22's (whoops) defensive deficiencies, as it likely covered up Stralman's. 

#5 Dan Girardi (A)
13/14 stats: (5 G. 19 A) =  24 points
Projected 14/15 stats: (7 G,  22) =  29 points

The Blueshirt Faithful are all over the board when it comes to their faith in Dan Girardi. Some say he makes poor reads and doesn't skate well enough to be a first pairing defenseman. Other people, who are actually watching the games, see the value that a player like G has to a winning team. He's an absolute workhorse, often playing hurt while going up against every team's top players night in and night out.  He is physical and fearless in his own zone, and has a decent offensive skill set (as long as he's not on the Power Play). G is a steady force, allowing a blossoming Ryan Mcdonagh to feel confident enough to take chances and push his boundaries. He is part of this team's core, and will wear an "A" on his jersey this season.

#8 Kevin Klein
13/14 stats: (1 G. 5 A) =  6 points
Projected 14/15 stats: (2 G,  6 A) =  8 points

Acquired early last season for Michael Del Zaster, Klein was a quiet, dependable force on the third pairing, who had the ability to play top 4 minutes if necessary. Limited offensively, Klein isn't afraid to be physical, and plays important minutes when AV decides to shorten his bench. Still signed for a couple of years at a reasonable price, Klein plays a simple, efficient game, and makes the Ranger's 3rd pair as solid as they come. 

#27 Ryan McDonagh (C)
13/14 stats: (14 G. 29 A) =  43 points
Projected 14/15 stats: (16 G, 35 A) =  51 points

Have we only just begun to scrape the surface of Ryan McDonagh's skill set? Already a top notch shutdown blue liner, McDonagh showed his offensive potential last season, notching 43 points and getting increased ice-time with the man advantage. Honored as the 27th captain in NYR history (and 5th youngest), McDonagh's all-around game has him being mentioned alongside Keith, Weber, Karlsson, Subban and rest of the league's elite defensemen. Mac-Truck is definitely a potential Norris Trophy Candidate.  And the Rangers acquired him (and other junk) for Scott Gomez (and other junk). Just reminding you.

#17 John Moore
13/14 stats: (4 G. 11 A) =  15 points
Projected 14/15 stats: (5 G,  14A) =  19 points

I'm not really sure what to make of John Moore. One day he looks like he gets it, and uses his speed to jump up into the play while making sound, safe defensive plays. The next day his is running around like a headless chicken, taking himself out of the play going for ill-advised body checks. What I do know is that he's still only 23, and sometimes young defensemen take a little longer to develop. He is certainly steady enough for the 3rd pairing, and he may also have some more offensive potential than he's shown so far. 

#18 Marc Staal (A)
13/14 stats: (3 G. 11 A) =  14 points
Projected 14/15 stats: (5 G, 16 A) =  21 points

Going into a contract year, Staal will need to put together a consistent and healthy season in order to cash in on his impending free agency. The 2nd oldest Staal was on his way to becoming one of the NHL's best blue liners before a rash of gruesome (ew.) injuries caused a hiccup in his development. Also in the midst of his prime at 27, Marc has regained most of his defensive prowess (though he still gets beat more often than he used to), but his offensive game has gone by the wayside. Can he rediscover that part of his game? Will the Rangers re-sign him and keep their young defensive corps intact, or will they use him as trade bait come March? We'll see.

Next: Matt Hunwick, Conner Allen, Dylan McIlrath (Ugh.)

GOALTENDING

#33 Cam Talbot
13/14 stats: 19 GP, 12-6-1, 1.64 GAA, .941 SV%, 3 SO
Projected 13/14 stats:  20 GP  11-6-3, 2.71 GAA, .909 SV%, 2 SO

Cam Talbot may have been the biggest and best surprise for the New York Rangers last year.  When Henrik Lundqvist started the season slow due to contract disputes, long road-trips, or whatever you want to attribute it to, Talbot was there, winning 6 of his 7 starts in October-November. The Goalbuster's stellar play between the pipes kept the Rangers from falling out of playoff contention early last season. If he can provide the Rangers with 20 quality starts this season, Henrik should be fresh for a deep playoff run.

#30 Henrik Lundqvist
13/14 stats: 63 GP, 33-24-5, 2.36 GAA, .920 SV%, 5 SO
Projected 13/14 stats:  62 GP 35-23-4, 2.29 GAA, .928SV%, 6 SO

He is The King. He is the best goaltender in the world. He is hungry for the one honor that has eluded him in his hockey career, and he still has the skill set to carry his team there. With Henrik Lundqvist in the blue paint, the Rangers have a chance to win any game against any team on any night. And he does it all while being devastatingly handsome

 CALL UPS: Cedrick Desjardins


Expectations for the 2014-15 New York Rangers are as high now as they've been since Mark Messier arrived in 1991.  They have a solid, skilled core that is in the midst of its prime, and they have supported these players with championship quality veterans, an infusion of fast, exciting youth, and an open-minded coach with an effective gameplan . Having the best goaltender in the world between the pipes doesn't hurt either. While there are still some holes and unanswered questions, this is a roster built not just to be competitive, but to challenge for the Stanley Cup.  

Be sure to stop by for various ranting and game recaps over the course of what is sure to be a dynamic, stressful, and fun season of New York Rangers hockey.


PREDICTION: 46-29-7, 99 points, 1st in Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference Finals.



-Rif